We don’t are attempting to rep anyone dread, but a factual argument would possibly perchance even be made for aggressively preserving tech stock holdings. If my memory serves me wisely, we haven’t shared this monthly chart since uninteresting 2021 (when it became featured on the December Twenty first, 2021, episode of Enraged Money). On the time, we had been fascinated in regards to the unhealthy, steeply sloped rally. Since then, the NASDAQ 100 corrected from appealing under 17,000 to appealing over 10,000, later rallying assist to rep contemporary all-time highs. However, those contemporary highs are elevating some red flags.
No topic the deep correction, the positive factors are quiet wildly outsized relative to historical bull market trajectories. The dotted shadowy line represents a natural market slope on the equipped monthly NASDAQ 100 futures market chart. It’s miles uncomplicated to glimpse that without reference to the digestion from uninteresting 2021 by the fall of 2023, the rally is quiet statistically sooner than schedule.
Additionally referring to is the divergence in the RSI (Relative Power Index). In 2021, near the tip, the RSI on a monthly chart became learning 78.00. These days, with the NASDAQ 100 at a greater impress, the RSI is quiet under 70.00. This model of disconnect between impress and oscillator is in point of fact a red flag for pattern exhaustion.
Lastly, we noticed that drawing a trendline from the dot.com bubble high by the 2021 high creates a trendline that would act as swift resistance at appealing under 18,000 (no longer removed from contemporary highs). Is this trendline arbitrary? Perhaps, but in my trip, easy strains drawn on a chart work procedure more generally than they must.
If we wished to sing in regards to the chart cumbersome discontinuance, we would rep an argument that the NASDAQ 100 would possibly perchance factual to under 12,000. We aren’t able to “grab” into that belief appealing yet. Election years are most steadily factual for markets, and the January barometer suggests 2024 is statistically characteristic to be a definite one general. However, a correction appears drawing near.
Because of the unstable nature of the futures markets some records and charts on this story would possibly perchance merely no longer be timely.
There’s huge threat of loss in trading futures and alternatives.
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